4.23.2008
Posted by
Soccer Mom
at
10:02:00 AM
Fence-sitter raised some question that I’m sure is on the minds of many undecided voters:
"Does it concern you that Barack can't put her away? How will he be able to put up a fight against McCain? Will the Clinton voters fall in line and vote the party or go to McCain?"
To be honest, my only concern is the media narrative. Listening to the pundits yesterday, before the PA votes even started to trickle in, was truly painful. Suddenly this one state was the only state that mattered. All those other states were merely a prelude: if Clinton could eke out a victory in this state, trailing in the delegate count would no longer be significant, and it would be a brand new race, and Obama would be the one on the ropes. To them it is not enough for Obama to simply be winning the nomination according to the rules laid out in advance: no, he must win the "right" way, according to the Clinton campaign narrative, or it doesn't count. He has to win the "right" states. And he has to win primaries, not caucuses. And he has to "close the deal", shutting Clinton out of remaining wins entirely, or it proves something ominous. And he not only has to win the "popular vote", but he has to win that, too, the right way, which is to say by counting only certain states and not counting others. And he has to win small towns, not just big population centers, because winning big population centers is elitist. Except that if he wins small towns in the West and Midwest, that doesn't count, because although those are white voters (like in Iowa and Wisconsin) they…I don’t know…eat too much dairy!?! It’s ridiculous! And they spin it that this somehow proves that Clinton is a better candidate against McCain than Obama is, even though the polls to date have consistently shown Obama is a better candidate against McCain than Clinton is.
The fact that Clinton has not been able to "close the deal" against him, and is instead trailing him badly and irreparably, barring a super delegate coupe, somehow does not count against her own merits. And do you know why that is? It’s because this primary race is a cash cow for the media. They want this horse race to drag on as long as it possibly can. They’re making big bucks off of it, so why would they want it to end. Do you really believe that any other candidate could be trailing so far behind in delegate count, states won, popular vote, and money raised and still be found relevant?
Remember, Clinton was the “inevitable” candidate that was so sure that this thing would be over by Super Tuesday. She was the one with the backing of the establishment, the machine. She was the one that started out this race with $171 million in the bank.
So while the media will keep up the narrative that Clinton is the “comeback kid”, for probably at least another day, once the confetti has been swept away the truth will break through. Clinton now needs 71% of all remaining delegates. That’s 5% more then she needed yesterday morning. She did not make up any ground. She needs 71% of the delegates in Guam. In Indiana. In North Carolina. In Kentucky. In Oregon. In Puerto Rico. In Montana. In South Dakota.
That’s the real story; not that Obama can’t “close the deal”. He was behind by 25% in PA just a couple of weeks ago. He made some real cuts into her base. And I have no doubt that Pennsylvania will go to whoever the nominee is, just like they rallied and went for Kerry in 2004. Rendell and his machine will vigorously back Obama when he is the nominee. I have no doubts about that.
Once the nomination is wrapped up and Clinton democrats start comparing Obama to McCain the majority will come back into the fold - McCain is very weak on the domestic policy fornt and has tied hisself to a failed adminstration and a failed war. I know from exit polling that there are some that will never vote for a black. Sadly, that’s the reality and there is nothing anyone can do about those voters. But the majority will base their decision on what is best for the party and the country.
The thing is Clinton, could have bowed out gracefully, knowing that she can’t win without overturning the will of the people, but she has decided to ratchet up the rhetoric and push on. And in doing so the only group that is benefiting from it is the media that will gladly push her narrative as long they are making money hand over fist on her.
Oh…and here is a perfect example of the media issue that I’m talking about. The only official numbers are those from the PA Secretary of State. Since very late last night when Chester County started rolling in the official site has show that the race was actually closer than being reported all over the news. Clinton won the State by only 8%, but you see 10% (DOUBLE DIGITS!) is a sexier win than the truth. He did better than I even thought he would.
Labels: Clinton, Obama, Primary Season
1 Comment:
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- Anonymous said...
April 23, 2008 4:20 PMYes, it seems many have forgotten that she was the projected front runner when all this started. And there never seems to be much coverage of all the people who have left her campaign, if this was someone else I think the media would be calling it the death nail if a campaign manager and chief strategist both quit in the course of 2 months.
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